Assessing Water (Ir)Rationality in Nagorno-Karabakh

The deterioration and scarcity of water resources have increasingly been at the heart of debates on regional security, with disputes over management and ownership of waterways leading both upstream and downstream countries to the brink of conflict. Such danger has emphasized the need for transboundary cooperation to ensure water security and regional governance. The present chapter focuses on a region where military security, economic viability, and national sentiment have overshadowed transboundary water management issues: Nagorno-Karabakh. As home to the headwaters of rivers, dams, and hydropower plants alike, the lands in and around Nagorno-Karabakh have played a vital role in providing water to an area that has been particularly afflicted by water scarcity. In the last three decades, this case has assumed significant importance in the literature on water conflicts because of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh as an upstream non-internationally recognized state whose control has been disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan since the collapse of the Soviet Union. On 9 November 2020, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a Russia-brokered agreement to end the military operations in Karabakh after 44 days of war. As evidenced by the reciprocal accusations of eco-terrorism and environmental sabotage, mutual distrust and deep politicization prevent the two sides from achieving successful transboundary management, which fosters instability in the region. The present chapter will assess and compare the main theories on water governance, exploring possible diplomatic outcomes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in convergence with the other regional states—Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and Iran—to foster successful cooperation over shared water resources.