Early Warning Models in the OSCE: Adoption and Re-invention

In the 1990s, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) became a pioneer in conflict prevention: from creating the Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) to signing the Helsinki Summit Declaration and establishing the institutution of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM). Drawing on sociological neo-institutionalism and constructivism, this paper looks at the construction of conflict early warning in the OSCE as first linked to the relevant world cultural models. These include the norm of conflict prevention, inter-organizational cooperation, and bureaucratization that helped its proliferation. Second, the OSCE example shows that standards such as conflict prevention, reflected in the organization’s mandate, can be interpreted, and implemented in a manner that international bureaucracies see as a better fit to fulfill their mission. Such bodies as the HCNM and the CPC thus contribute to implementation and the construction of a specific understanding and, ultimately, the future of conflict early warning.