Forecasted Petroleum Products Consumption in Ukraine and Estimated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Their Use

This chapter presents a mathematical model for forecasting the consumption of petroleum products using a complex two-stage method. The proposed mathematical model allows forecasting the national consumption of petroleum products in general (TOP-level) and by types of economic activity (DOWN- level) for its transportation and conversion into electrical and thermal energy. The aim of the study was to develop petroleum product forecast for further balance forming, clarification of methodological approaches to obtaining activity data and projecting petroleum product demand in the energy sector under the destruction of energy facilities in the wake of Russian economic activity against Ukraine. The expediency of forecasting first the total petroleum products consumption by whole country and aggregated types of economic activity, followed by forecasting the structure of consumption of petroleum products types was confirmed. This approach is determined by the fact that the structure of petroleum fuel consumption varies significantly depending on the prices of its types and available vehicles. A regulatory method was used to forecast petroleum products at the TOP and DOWN levels. Forecasts obtained at two levels, with significant differences in results, were usually agreed using Kulik's vector method. Since the State Statistics Service did not provide the form of statistical reporting by types of economic activity for 2020, the initial data for sectors of the economy were formed from the Energy Balance of Ukraine for 2020. Therefore, the received forecasts have a convergence of about 1% and do not need to be reconciled. The forecasted petroleum products demand at the country and economic sectors level was determined until 2040 for different structures of the economy. The structural and technological energy saving potentials of the petroleum products consumption were evaluated. An increase in the consumption of petroleum products in the energy sector is expected to restore the country's economy in the post-war period. Changes in the structure of petroleum products consumption were analyzed and forecasted changes were proposed, taking into account the war in Ukraine. Based on the largest volumes of petroleum product consumption, carbon emissions were estimated to 2040.