Assessing the Current and Future Distribution of Acer monspessulanum L. in Tunisian Dorsal Using MaxEnt Model

The Montpellier maple (Acer monspessulanum L.) is a rare species in Tunisia located in Bargou, Serj and Zaghouan mountains of the Tunisian Dorsal with a limited distribution range. The species is located mainly in the Mediterranean basin and western Asia with a shallow presence in North Africa and Asian countries. Its ecological importance could be resumed in the fact that this species is one of few deciduous trees in calcareous summits of the Tunisian Dorsal area which helps in fixing and regenerating soils. The environmental properties as well as land properties that affect its recessive distribution area and its future distribution rest unclear. Based on a Maximum Entropy Model using MAXENT tool, bioclimatic and environmental variables, the historical and future potential distribution of the species were estimated for the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and the 2040–2060 and 2060–2080 periods. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to analyze its performance. For the historical potential distribution, suitable sites were located in few summits of the distribution area whereas, for the future distribution, the suitable areas for the species distribution will disappear from the Tunisian Dorsal. Precipitation seasonality, isothermality, tree cover and elevation are the main factors that define the distribution model of A. monspessulanum. These interesting results need more focus on other biodiversity driving factors in further investigations of the species distribution.