Time-Dependent Behavior of the Callovo-Oxfordian Claystone for Nuclear Waste Disposal: Uncertainty Quantification from In-Situ Convergence Measurements
摘要
In-situ observations exhibit an evolution in time of the convergence of drifts constructed in the Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone, a potential host formation for the geological disposal of radioactive waste in France. These convergence measurements with a significant dispersion reveal a considerable uncertainty in the time-dependent behavior of this argillaceous rock, which can strongly affect the drift stability in the long term. Consequently, quantifying the uncertainty of the creep behavior of COx claystone is an important task before analyzing the safety of the waste disposal system. In this work, this challenge is conducted by using the well-known Bayesian inference.