Study on the Impact of Different Coastal Zone Submergence Scenarios on Economic Growth in Fujian Province Based on a CGE Model

Fujian Province is one of the areas most seriously affected by typhoon storm surges and sea level rise. Coastal flooding caused by frequent typhoon storm surges is the leading ocean disaster in Fujian Province. In order to assess the impact of different scenarios of coastal zone submergence on the economic growth (especially marine economic growth) in Fujian Province, this study constructs a CGE model for Fujian Province that can reflect the disaster impact of coastal zone submergence and prepares a social accounting matrix for the marine economy of Fujian Province as the data foundation. Three scenarios of coastal zone submergence were developed by integrating the prediction results of China’s SOA Program on “Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction” into the model. By quantitatively assessing the effects of the three scenarios on the economic growth in Fujian Province, this study finds that coastal zone submergence has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Fujian Province, incurring a GDP loss of Fujian Province from 3.50 to 6.49%. As marine economic production activities mainly occur in the coastal areas of Fujian Province, the loss of marine economy is much greater than the loss of GDP. Therefore, Fujian Province should cope with the impact of coastal zone submergence by imposing various adaptation and mitigation measures.