Dynamic Simulation of Landscape Pattern and Ecosystem Services Value of the Upper Reaches of the Luanhe River

Understanding natural resource endowments is the foundation for the future sustainable development of river basins. In this paper, based on the land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020 respectively, six landscape indices of different scales were selected to study the characteristics of landscape pattern changes in the upper reaches of the Luanhe River, and the ecosystem services value of the basin was accessed. Based on the CA–Markov model, the land use pattern of the basin in 2030 was simulated to predict the future ESV of this basin for study. The results show that the development of urbanization has profoundly affected the landscape pattern of the basin; grassland is the absolute dominant landscape of the basin under study; settlement land and water area have grown rapidly. With the change of active landscape processes, the ecosystem services value of the basin continues to rise. As shown by the prediction results, the ecosystem services value of this basin is predicted to increase from RMB12.790 billion to RMB13.952 billion from 2020 to 2030, with an increase of 9.1%; the water area has a significant contribution to the growth of ESV in this basin.