Multi-Scenario Forecasting Methodology of Energy-Environment System Based on LEAP Model

Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target in China, the energy flow structure of society is undergoing a period of rapid transformation, and the forecast of energy development under the carbon emission boundary is of great significance nowadays. This study proposes a complete methodology of energy-environment multi-scenario analysis and prediction based on LEAP model for system adaptation and method expansion. The overall methodological framework consists of four core systems: the society sector system (SoSS), the tools library system (TLS), the scenario setting system (ScSS) and the trend forecasting system (TFS). With society sector structure as the framework, scenario setting and tools library as the main body, the parametric forecasting method could be applied to the whole society energy-environment system prediction, which is highly operable and systematic. The methodology is less restrictive in terms of geographic scale and is suitable for various analysis for province, city or urban region.