Construction of an Urban Road Collapse Risk Assessment Model and Its Case Study in Guangzhou

Road collapse has become one of the frequent geological disasters in large cities, and effective road collapse risk assessment is of great significance for the arrangement of urban road collapse prevention and control work. The current risk assessment models related to road collapse show a high dependence on the results of underground disasters (UD) detection, and lack risk assessment analysis for the case of undetected. In this paper, based on the actual geological conditions and urban construction characteristics of Guangzhou, P.R. China, the road collapse risk assessment model (RCRA) for detected and undetected underground disasters is established by integrating the elements of the risk occurrence possibility (ROP) and risk consequence (RC). Combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, a road collapse areal assessment method adapted to Guangzhou was proposed. Moreover, the analysis and calculation were carried out with Dongfeng Road in Guangzhou as a typical case, and the RCRA was synchronously applied to the road collapse risk assessment of Huanshi Road, Zhongshan Avenue West and Guangzhou Avenue, which further verified the characteristics and scientific of RCRA. Compared with current risk assessment models, RCRA constructed in this study considers more comprehensive influence elements and exhibits higher adaptability to the actual road collapse risk situation in Guangzhou.