Past Reconstruction and Future Forecast of Stone Durability: The Case Study of the Trondheim Cathedral

The study of climate change impact on the built environment using historical weather data, and forecasts, and climate scenarios, is an important mean to understand both the modification occurred on materials over past decades and those expected over the future. The aim of the present contribution is to investigate how the stone durability in the built environment has been affected by temperature modification since 1951 at high latitudes. To achieve this objective air temperature retrieved by weather stations and satellite remote sensing instruments have been analysed using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product over the 1950–2020-time span. This product has then been compared with the COSMO-CCL COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling [1] data for climate predictions in the far future (i.e., FF = 2071–2100). The Representative Concentration Pathway scenario selected was the RCP4.5 - stabilization scenario [2]. Both the datasets have been retrieved over the location of the Nidaros Cathedral (NC) in Trondheim (Norwegian: Nidaros domkirke), Norway that represents the high latitude case study of this contribution. Data processed through Fast Fourier Transform and percentile analysis show how the climate change impact is manifested at NC. Over the years, temperature shows a most pronounced variance modification rather than a marked increasing trend that in turn affects the number of freezing-thawing cycles process with consequences on cracks and spalling of stones [3]. The average stone durability assessed in this study is of support to conservators, architects, and restorers to effectively and timely plan restoration intervention of NCT stones.