Assessing of LULC and Climate Change in Kolkata Urban Agglomeration Using MOLUSCE Model

Land Use and Climate change are interrelated to each other. Understanding the response of land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change over highly urbanised area has become a priority issue for contemporary urban planning and management. This present study aimed to assess the LULC changes and predict future trends with relation to changing climate scenario at micro scale in Upper Catchment Area of Bagjola Canal, located within the Kolkata Urban Agglomeration. Land Use Change Simulations (MOLUSCE) model of Quantum GIS (QGIS) environment has been used here to detect land use/land cover changes. Future generated data from Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5 (MIROSC5) model is used for climate change analysis with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 data are utilized for urban climate change impact on urban LULC. The analysis revealed that substantial growth of built-up areas in study area over the study period (1980–2028) resulted significant decrease in the area of water bodies, wetlands and open vacant land. However, the results show that urban sprawl direction is North and South-West to North and South-East. RCPs data revealed that study area will be more wormer and temperature will reach above 40 ºC. Increased rainfall intensity and number of extreme rainfall events will affect the geo-environment of the study area adversely. The impacts of climate change are more significant in study area. The outcomes of this study may help in developing sustainable urban planning and management policy, as well as assist authorities in making informed decisions to improve environmental and hydro-ecological conditions of Upper Catchment Area of Bagjola Canal which will increase the quality of life in an urban agglomeration environment.