Failures Forecast on Overhead Lines from Wind Loads in the Krasnodar Krai of Russia

The need to consider the climatic loads is directly related to the maintenance and development of the power industry infrastructure and ensuring energy security, and the vulnerability of the electric grid complex to climate manifestations is due to a significant amount of infrastructure affected by meteorological factors. The aim of the study is to forecasting the number of accidents on the overhead lines of PJSC “Rosseti Kuban” in Krasnodar Krai for various wind speeds for the period up to 2030. It was carried out a detailed analysis of the technological failures causes on overhead lines in the selected area and was estimated the distribution of accidents associated with wind exposure for various voltage classes.It was determined the number of phenomena with a maximum wind speed averaged over a 10-min time interval by classes corresponding to the Beaufort scale and were formed forecast estimates until 2030. A mathematical model has been developed for estimating the uptime probability of overhead lines depending on the exposure level of wind speed based on the lognormal distribution function, which is used to determine the forecast values of the number of accidents. The obtained results can be used to form recommendations for the implementation of organizational and technical measures to prevention and increase the stability of the electric grid complex. The developed methodological approach is significant, both for individual regions of Russia and for all electric grid companies, for the introduction of critical infrastructure facilities into climate adaptation plans.