Intelligent Support for Adaptive Constructing of Trajectory in Project Implementation Scenario Network

The paper is devoted to the problems of managing the implementation of multi-scenario multi-stage projects under conditions of uncertainty, which is relevant in modern conditions. The proposed approach is based on the presentation of the project model in the form of a scenario network, the nodes of which correspond to the sets of activities of the project stage, and the arcs show the sequence of the stages. The choice of the arc along which the transition from one node to another takes place (within the framework of the trajectory on the network of scenarios) is made on the basis of an expert analysis of the results of the implementation of the measures of the next stage and external conditions at the end of the stage, which determines the adaptability of project implementation management. As a tool for analysis, it is proposed to use the methodological apparatus of L. Zadeh’s theory of linguistic variables. The final selection of the transition arc (carried out as part of the adaptive construction of the project trajectory) is made by the decision maker based on the results of fuzzy inference and personal preferences. The proposed approach makes it possible to ensure multi-scenarios planning and adaptability of managing the implementation of multi-stage projects. Preliminary results of using a research prototype of an intelligent expert system for analyzing the results of the stages and adaptive construction of the project trajectory may indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.