Market Share Forecast of Vietnam and of the World’s Leading Textile and Garment Exporters by VAR Bayesian Model

This article forecasts the export market share of textiles during the 2020–2030 period in 10 countries with the world’s largest export market share of textiles in 2019. Using the Var Bayesian model and secondary data collected from 1988 to 2019, the export market share of textiles and garments in the world in 2019, as reported on the World Bank’s website, includes Vietnam, the USA, Germany, Japan, China, England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. The forecast results show that the export market share of textiles in four countries, including the USA, China, Japan, and Spain, tends to increase slightly and steadily. In comparison, the second group of six countries, including Germany, England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Vietnam, tends to reduce. From a policy perspective, the authors also offer some recommendations for how textile export enterprises should operate. They should actively prepare for production and human resources after the wave of employees leaving industry zones to avoid the pandemic, bringing effective manufacturing and exporting activities and maintaining the export market share of textiles. As a means of minimizing the harmful effects of the COVID − 19 epidemic, policymakers are called upon to diversify export markets, actively search for new markets, take advantage of the Free Trade Agreement, and implement harmonized dual − target strategies in order to promote economic growth.