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Global climate change is expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. This study aimed to explore the effect of drought on vegetation cover change in fragmented landscapes, identify seasonal/phonological changes in dry Afromontane forests, and assess the inter-annual changes in precipitation with respect to the drought effect in the Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. Satellite (MODIS and CHIRPS) and observed meteorological data were used to analyze Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), Synthesized Drought Index (SDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Precipitation Condition Index (PCI) and spatiotemporal meteorological drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The index (SDI, VCI, and TCI) results reveal a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01), confirming the presence of severe drought in northern Ethiopia in 2004, 2012, and 2014. Furthermore, the SDI results indicate extreme drought events in northeastern and eastern parts of Tigray, exacerbating seedling and sapling mortality within the fragmented and patchy forests of the northern Ethiopia landscape. This study recommends further research to analyze drought patterns through investigating factors influencing SDI correlations, exploring crop diversification, cultivation practices in rain-fed systems, considering recent anthropogenic influences on ecosystem degradation related to the war in northern Ethiopia, and the exploring nature-based solutions on to mitigate the climate change, as well as resilient forest restoration and management strategies.

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Drought Monitoring for Fragmented Forest Landscapes Using MODIS and CHIRPS Data: Implications for Forest Restoration and Management in Northern Ethiopia

  • 工具书词条

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Belay Manjur Gebru,
  • Girma Berhe Adane,
  • Amare Sisay Tefera,
  • Daniel Hagos Berhe,
  • Woo-Kyun Lee,
  • Mitiku Haile

摘要

Global climate change is expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. This study aimed to explore the effect of drought on vegetation cover change in fragmented landscapes, identify seasonal/phonological changes in dry Afromontane forests, and assess the inter-annual changes in precipitation with respect to the drought effect in the Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. Satellite (MODIS and CHIRPS) and observed meteorological data were used to analyze Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), Synthesized Drought Index (SDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Precipitation Condition Index (PCI) and spatiotemporal meteorological drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The index (SDI, VCI, and TCI) results reveal a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01), confirming the presence of severe drought in northern Ethiopia in 2004, 2012, and 2014. Furthermore, the SDI results indicate extreme drought events in northeastern and eastern parts of Tigray, exacerbating seedling and sapling mortality within the fragmented and patchy forests of the northern Ethiopia landscape. This study recommends further research to analyze drought patterns through investigating factors influencing SDI correlations, exploring crop diversification, cultivation practices in rain-fed systems, considering recent anthropogenic influences on ecosystem degradation related to the war in northern Ethiopia, and the exploring nature-based solutions on to mitigate the climate change, as well as resilient forest restoration and management strategies.