The Impact of Curfew on Transit Demand and In-Vehicle Density

Many countries have implemented a restriction on the operation hours of restaurants and bars at night during COVID-19 to curb the spread of the virus. In Canada, transit demand has plunged significantly during curfew hours. Seoul also implemented a similar type of restriction and cut the number of operating buses by 20% after 9 p.m. The impacts of the restrictions on transit demand and in-vehicle density varied according to transit mode, time, and location. This study aims to analyze the impacts of the restrictions using Seoul smart card data from August 24 to September 11, 2020. We observed several significant findings regarding changes in transit demand patterns. First, the demand from 9 p.m. to midnight shifted to alternative departure times. Second, there was a curfew rush hour at approximately 9 p.m., when many people rushed home simultaneously, increasing volumes by 34%, while transit demand after 9 p.m. plunged by 30% compared to before curfew periods. Third, passengers showed different sensitivity to their transit modes. This is because they understood the frequency of bus operations would be reduced as a part of the restriction. Fourth, the curfew rush hour demand emerged in high-density socializing establishments. Lastly, due to the curfew rush hour effect, in-vehicle density significantly increased on certain bus routes, potentially endangering passengers by spreading the virus. These findings provide insights for implementing restrictions on transit operation and pandemic preparedness planning.