Evaluation of Net-Zero Carbon and 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios for 2050 and Beyond

“100% renewable energy” (RE) and “net zero” scenarios have recently gained popularity with decision-makers and the research community, as they help outline the path toward climate-friendly futures. In this chapter, we assess the quality, technological trends, and conceptual differences of those net zero and 100% RE visions. Our work builds on a survey of 25 non-academic scenarios published between 2017 and 2020 that target decision-makers and the public. Based on the foresight literature, we developed a list of evaluation criteria for scenario quality, evaluating their transparency, relevance, plausibility, interdisciplinarity, visionary thinking, and “catchiness.” Our evaluation shows considerable methodological flaws among the reviewed scenarios. These shortcomings are more pronounced in our sample than in conventional energy scenarios. 100% RE scenarios rank worse on our indicators than the net zero visions. Among other issues, most scenarios scored low on plausibility, interdisciplinarity, and “catchiness,” show low extent of technological vision, and only to a limited extent consider the role of society and politics. Also, the scenarios underrepresent non-WEIRD (Western Educated Industrialized Rich Democratic) perspectives and knowledge. We conclude that the culture of non-academic 100% RE and net zero scenarios needs to be revised from the ground up. Regarding trends, we identify growing energy demand, a potential revival of nuclear energy, and conflicting visions regarding hydrogen.