Modeling the Role of Oil and Gas in a Net Zero Carbon Future

The objective of this chapter is to assess the compatibility of oil and natural gas consumption in a net zero CO2 emissions future. We use the previously established Global Energy Market Model (GEM) to first provide a close match of the historical energy mix and the associated carbon levels. The model is then used to make simulations of how the energy mix and carbon quantities will evolve in the long distant future – the year 2150 – if past dynamics are an indication of the future. The GEM-modeling exercise was originally carried out in 2007 (the year we developed the model), using historical data up to the year 2005. A baseline projection showed the continued penetration of natural gas in the energy mix until the mid-twenty-first century, which would help slow global carbon growth. Thus, gas was seen as a transition fuel towards a low carbon future dominated by non-fossil energy. The present study uses the most recent statistics, up to the year 2021, to verify the accuracy of the original GEM results. The energy mix projection is also compared with the climate-stabilization goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. Although the projection in itself is incompatible with climate and net zero goals, we suggest that it can be compatible if oil and gas is used together with clean technologies and CO2 emission offsets. Natural gas in particular is found to further decarbonize the energy system to the extent that it replaces coal and enables renewable energy use. An example of how to implement carbon capture, utilization and storage of CO2 (CCUS) is presented using data of the Eagle Ford shale in Texas.