How can we explore the future of a technology when the future itself is inherently uncertain? This chapter presents a pragmatic answer: an integrated foresight process that fuses qualitative expertise with large-scale quantitative evidence from publications, patents and alternative metrics. Developed at Fraunhofer FKIE, the approach links classic desk research and expert judgment with bibliometrics, patentometrics and altmetrics, implemented in the in-house analytics platform KATI. Microrobotics—tiny, mobile, and programmable robotic systems—serves as a vivid case study. Step by step, the chapter shows how iterative searches, statistical mapping of disciplines, organizations and countries, and analyses of patent families and online attention reveal who is shaping the field, which application domains are emerging, and where genuine breakthroughs—rather than hype—may occur. Building on this evidence, the chapter sketches technological trajectories, key challenges (such as energy supply, scaling and manufacturing), and plausible civilian and military use cases, from medical microbots to covert sensing and swarms. It concludes with clear recommendations on when this foresight process adds value, its current limitations, and how advanced methods such as topic modelling and clustering can further enhance the exploration of technological futures.

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Microrobots: Foresight of a Defense- and Security-Relevant Technology Using Qualitative and Quantitative Methods

  • Miloš Jovanović,
  • Baycan Yildirim,
  • Sonja Wallraff-Alsdorf

摘要

How can we explore the future of a technology when the future itself is inherently uncertain? This chapter presents a pragmatic answer: an integrated foresight process that fuses qualitative expertise with large-scale quantitative evidence from publications, patents and alternative metrics. Developed at Fraunhofer FKIE, the approach links classic desk research and expert judgment with bibliometrics, patentometrics and altmetrics, implemented in the in-house analytics platform KATI. Microrobotics—tiny, mobile, and programmable robotic systems—serves as a vivid case study. Step by step, the chapter shows how iterative searches, statistical mapping of disciplines, organizations and countries, and analyses of patent families and online attention reveal who is shaping the field, which application domains are emerging, and where genuine breakthroughs—rather than hype—may occur. Building on this evidence, the chapter sketches technological trajectories, key challenges (such as energy supply, scaling and manufacturing), and plausible civilian and military use cases, from medical microbots to covert sensing and swarms. It concludes with clear recommendations on when this foresight process adds value, its current limitations, and how advanced methods such as topic modelling and clustering can further enhance the exploration of technological futures.