A Strategic Environmental Assessment for Saldanha Bay to Determine Natural Capital and Ecosystem Service Thresholds

A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) was undertaken for the Saldanha Bay region to estimate the proximity of natural capital features and ecosystem services to critical thresholds. The assumption being that, should such thresholds be exceeded as a result of substantial environmental stressors or disruptions, the system could shift toward an undesirable high-risk and low-resilience state. The chapter introduces key concepts (e.g., natural capital, ecosystem services, risk and resilience) and methodologies (e.g., Drivers–Pressures–Impact, and risk and resilience assessment, multiauthor teams) that underpinned the Saldanha Bay SEA process. Important findings revealed by this SEA process are presented and a potential, integrated decision-making solution to monitor and assess ecological thresholds is explained. The risks identified across natural capital features in the Saldanha Bay region are intrinsically interconnected. A change in one area can cause a cascade of changes in another, potentially pushing the system past a tipping point and into a new, less desirable state. Such systemic shifts can have profound and long-lasting impacts, both ecologically and socioeconomically, and are typically difficult, if not impossible, to effectively reverse. This underscores the importance of proactive management strategies, which both seek to mitigate risk and enhance resilience of Saldanha Bay’s natural capital and associated ecosystem services.