Forecasts of Earth’s Effective Angular Momentum functions (EAM) are used for different applications, including prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). Since May 2021, the Chair of Space Geodesy at ETH Zurich has been operationally providing accurate EAM forecasts. These forecasts cover the domain of atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, and sea level. They are based on the EAM forecasts by GFZ Potsdam but are corrected and extended to cover a forecasting horizon of two weeks using machine learning techniques. Here, we present a summary of the methodology and the results achieved during the past two years. We demonstrate the enhanced accuracy of our improved EAM functions of up to 50%. Furthermore, we demonstrate the impact on the potential application of utilizing EAM forecasts in the form of ultra-short-term prediction of length of day, where an improved accuracy of up to 19% has been achieved. The improved EAM forecasting product is updated daily and available at https://gpc.ethz.ch/EAM/ .

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Operational Forecasting of Effective Angular Momentum Functions Fourteen Days Ahead

  • Mostafa Kiani Shahvandi,
  • Matthias Schartner,
  • Junyang Gou,
  • Benedikt Soja

摘要

Forecasts of Earth’s Effective Angular Momentum functions (EAM) are used for different applications, including prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). Since May 2021, the Chair of Space Geodesy at ETH Zurich has been operationally providing accurate EAM forecasts. These forecasts cover the domain of atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, and sea level. They are based on the EAM forecasts by GFZ Potsdam but are corrected and extended to cover a forecasting horizon of two weeks using machine learning techniques. Here, we present a summary of the methodology and the results achieved during the past two years. We demonstrate the enhanced accuracy of our improved EAM functions of up to 50%. Furthermore, we demonstrate the impact on the potential application of utilizing EAM forecasts in the form of ultra-short-term prediction of length of day, where an improved accuracy of up to 19% has been achieved. The improved EAM forecasting product is updated daily and available at https://gpc.ethz.ch/EAM/ .