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Abstract <p>This paper presents key findings of a comprehensive analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2023/2024 winter season. The performance of consensus seasonal forecasts for Northern Eurasia is evaluated with a particular focus on their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation regimes. A qualitative assessment of the World Meteorological Organization multi-model ensemble forecasts and the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF) consensus forecasts for the 2023/2024 winter seasonal anomalies (air temperature and precipitation) has shown the superior predictive skill of the consensus approach, which has been created using equally weighted outputs from three Russian models: SLAV (Hydrometcenter of Russia/INM), MGO (Main Geophysical Observatory), and INM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics).</p>

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The Main Features of Climatic Conditions of the Winter Season 2023/2024 according to Monitoring Data and Forecasts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

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  • K. A. Sumerova,
  • V. M. Khan,
  • V. A. Tishchenko,
  • R. M. Vilfand

摘要

Abstract

This paper presents key findings of a comprehensive analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2023/2024 winter season. The performance of consensus seasonal forecasts for Northern Eurasia is evaluated with a particular focus on their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation regimes. A qualitative assessment of the World Meteorological Organization multi-model ensemble forecasts and the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF) consensus forecasts for the 2023/2024 winter seasonal anomalies (air temperature and precipitation) has shown the superior predictive skill of the consensus approach, which has been created using equally weighted outputs from three Russian models: SLAV (Hydrometcenter of Russia/INM), MGO (Main Geophysical Observatory), and INM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics).