Study of the Mountain Wave Generation over the European Part of Russia and Assessment of Forecasting Capabilities for Aviation Using the COSMO-Ru6.6 Model

The probability of the mountain wave generation over the European part of the Russian Federation in May–August 2023 is studied. The conditions for the occurrence of strong downdrafts and leeward orographic turbulence are discussed for four domains including the mountain systems of the Urals, the North Caucasus, the Kola Peninsula, and Crimea. An analysis of circulation and thermodynamic conditions favorable for the generation of mountain waves over European Russia has been performed using the initial and forecast data of the COSMO-Ru6.6 model. The forecast accuracy has been assessed for the parameters used in the calculations. It has been found that in some cases, moderate turbulence reported in the AIREP Speci aircraft observations near the areas as with complex terrain could be of orographic nature.