Salinity of the Sea of Azov in Modern and Projected Water Use Conditions

The problem of long-range probabilistic forecasting of the salinity in the Sea of Azov is considered. Due to the disturbed freshwater balance of the sea, which is caused by both increasing irrevocable withdrawals and the climate change in the Don and Kuban river basins and in the interfluve of the Don and the Kuban, the water salinity in the sea has increased in recent decades. To analyze current processes and to assess the future regime of salinity of the sea, it is proposed to use a simulation model based on the known balance ratios and probabilistic projections of the main processes (factors). The developed scheme of probabilistic forecasting makes it possible to take into account projected changes in the freshwater inflow (the volumes of withdrawal and inter-basin runoff transfer) in a simple form and to evaluate their effect.