Methods for Forecasting Meteorological Conditions Affecting Surface Air Pollution

The emission control in adverse meteorological conditions is one of the ways to reduce a negative impact of air pollution. A complex meteorological pollution dispersion index (MPDI) based on the numerical model data is proposed for early forecasting of such conditions. An algorithm for calculating the hourly and periodic MPDI is presented. The results of the method verification according to ground-based and high-altitude observations in the layer of 2–250 m and with the use of average urban pollution data are analyzed. A method for probabilistic forecasting of the MPDI is proposed to increase the reliability of the deterministic forecasting of adverse meteorological conditions. An automated technology for preparing and transmitting an information package of forecast products to the Roshydromet operational and production divisions is described. The package contains the forecasts of vertical temperature profiles, wind in the lower atmospheric layer, precipitation, and the height of the mixing layer with a time step of 3 hours, as well as the forecasts of two kinds of the MPDI with a lead time of two days.