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Abstract <p>The article considers primary coseismic deformations: the occurrence of ruptures on the surface directly related to slip in the earthquake source. The displacements at the surface rupture are estimated by the method of probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA). A modification of the classical PFDHA approach for the case of diffuse seismicity is proposed and implemented. Calculations are carried out in the area of the well-studied 2003 Altai earthquake, in the epicenter of which we placed a hypothetical site on which it is necessary to estimate the displacements. This allowed us compare the obtained results with the observed surface ruptures and displacements along them. The prospects of using the method for assessing the hazard of coseismic deformations in low-active areas, where active faults are not detected or are absent, are shown.</p>

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Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis in Areas of Diffuse Seismicity

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • V. V. Bykova,
  • J. Ya. Aptekman,
  • R. E. Tatevossian

摘要

Abstract

The article considers primary coseismic deformations: the occurrence of ruptures on the surface directly related to slip in the earthquake source. The displacements at the surface rupture are estimated by the method of probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA). A modification of the classical PFDHA approach for the case of diffuse seismicity is proposed and implemented. Calculations are carried out in the area of the well-studied 2003 Altai earthquake, in the epicenter of which we placed a hypothetical site on which it is necessary to estimate the displacements. This allowed us compare the obtained results with the observed surface ruptures and displacements along them. The prospects of using the method for assessing the hazard of coseismic deformations in low-active areas, where active faults are not detected or are absent, are shown.