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Objectives <p>Estimates of autism prevalence are critical for informing evidence-based decisions, allocating resources, and developing effective strategies to support autistic individuals and their families. In Canada, such estimates remain limited, with the most recent population-based data on autism prevalence and incidence in Manitoba spanning 2004–2015, underscoring the need for more current data.</p> Methods <p>We used linked, whole-population administrative health and clinical data to develop a validated identification algorithm. We determined annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism among Manitoba children and adolescents aged 0–17 from 2011 to 2022, and conducted regression modelling to examine changes over time, adjusting for sex, geography, and socioeconomic variables.</p> Results <p>We identified 9396 children and adolescents diagnosed with autism during the study period. The prevalence of autism diagnoses was 0.58% (95% CI 0.55–0.60) in 2011 and 1.67% (95% CI 1.63–1.72) in 2022. The incidence of autism diagnoses was 0.79/1000 (95% CI 0.69–0.90) in 2011 and 3.06/1000 (95% CI 2.87–3.27) in 2022. We found statistically significant year-over-year increases in both prevalence and incidence.</p> Conclusions <p>Increasing autism prevalence indicates a pressing public health need for sustained investment in specialized healthcare services and supports that promote the full inclusion of autistic people in society. Strengthening surveillance systems across Canada is essential for generating high-quality population-based data to inform policy development and resource allocation and ensuring the health and social needs of autistic people and their families are met.</p>

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Prevalence and incidence of autism in children and adolescents in Manitoba, Canada: An updated estimate using population-based administrative health data from 2011 to 2022

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月16日

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  • Deepa Singal,
  • Jennifer E. Enns,
  • Kevin Friesen,
  • Karen Bopp,
  • Margherita Cameranesi,
  • Ana Hanlon-Dearman,
  • Jonathan Lai,
  • Nathan C. Nickel,
  • Shahin Shooshtari,
  • Lonnie Zwaigenbaum,
  • Marni Brownell

摘要

Objectives

Estimates of autism prevalence are critical for informing evidence-based decisions, allocating resources, and developing effective strategies to support autistic individuals and their families. In Canada, such estimates remain limited, with the most recent population-based data on autism prevalence and incidence in Manitoba spanning 2004–2015, underscoring the need for more current data.

Methods

We used linked, whole-population administrative health and clinical data to develop a validated identification algorithm. We determined annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism among Manitoba children and adolescents aged 0–17 from 2011 to 2022, and conducted regression modelling to examine changes over time, adjusting for sex, geography, and socioeconomic variables.

Results

We identified 9396 children and adolescents diagnosed with autism during the study period. The prevalence of autism diagnoses was 0.58% (95% CI 0.55–0.60) in 2011 and 1.67% (95% CI 1.63–1.72) in 2022. The incidence of autism diagnoses was 0.79/1000 (95% CI 0.69–0.90) in 2011 and 3.06/1000 (95% CI 2.87–3.27) in 2022. We found statistically significant year-over-year increases in both prevalence and incidence.

Conclusions

Increasing autism prevalence indicates a pressing public health need for sustained investment in specialized healthcare services and supports that promote the full inclusion of autistic people in society. Strengthening surveillance systems across Canada is essential for generating high-quality population-based data to inform policy development and resource allocation and ensuring the health and social needs of autistic people and their families are met.