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<p>For intermediate-depth disposal in Japan (disposal depth: at least 70&#xa0;m below ground, safety period: 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;years), it is essential to assess long-term landscape evolution which can decrease the disposal depth and affect radionuclide transport. However, projections over the next 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;years have not been conducted for coastal areas. In this study, we developed a framework for projections of coastal landscape evolution over 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;years based on simulations of the past 125,000&#xa0;years (the last glacial-interglacial cycle) and tested it on the Kamikita Coastal Plain, Japan. Considering three scenarios of future sea level change, our results indicate that significant erosion may occur in the mid and downstream reaches of rivers and coastal areas (extending several hundred meters landward from the current 15-m contour (the highest projected sea level)). Moreover, the average basin relief is expected to increase in response to sea level fall.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Projections of coastal landscape evolution on a 105 years considering uncertainty of sea level change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月26日

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  • Shizuka Takai,
  • Emiko Uchikoshi,
  • Taro Shimada,
  • Seiji Takeda

摘要

For intermediate-depth disposal in Japan (disposal depth: at least 70 m below ground, safety period: 105 years), it is essential to assess long-term landscape evolution which can decrease the disposal depth and affect radionuclide transport. However, projections over the next 105 years have not been conducted for coastal areas. In this study, we developed a framework for projections of coastal landscape evolution over 105 years based on simulations of the past 125,000 years (the last glacial-interglacial cycle) and tested it on the Kamikita Coastal Plain, Japan. Considering three scenarios of future sea level change, our results indicate that significant erosion may occur in the mid and downstream reaches of rivers and coastal areas (extending several hundred meters landward from the current 15-m contour (the highest projected sea level)). Moreover, the average basin relief is expected to increase in response to sea level fall.

Graphical abstract