Prognostic Impact of Inflammation-Based Factors in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Achieving Pathological Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery

Patients achieving pathological complete response (pCR) post-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have a favorable prognosis. However, recurrence occurs in approximately 20–30% of all patients, with few studies evaluating their prognostic factors. We identified these prognostic factors, including inflammation-based markers, in patients with ESCC showing pCR after nCRT and surgery.

Patients with ESCC undergoing esophagectomy post-nCRT (January 2007–August 2017) were studied. Survival analysis evaluated 5-year overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk factors, including inflammation factors, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), were analyzed using Cox-proportional hazards model.

Overall, 123patients participated herein. After a median follow-up duration of 67 months (44–86 months), 17 patients (12.3%) had recurrent disease. The 5-year OS and RFS rates were 71.6% and 68.0%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, older age ( \(\ge\) $\ge$ 60 years) [hazard ratio (HR) 3.228, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.478–7.048, p = 0.003], higher pretreatment T stage (≥ T3; HR 2.563, 95% CI 1.335–4.922, p = 0.005), nonapplication of induction chemotherapy (HR 2.389, 95% CI 1.184–4.824, p = 0.015), and higher post-nCRT PLR (≥ 184.2; HR 2.896, 95% CI 1.547–5.420, p = 0.001) were poor independent prognostic factors for 5-year RFS. The patient group with three to four identified factors with poor outcomes exhibited a 5-year RFS rate of 46.2%.

Significant prognostic factors include higher post-nCRT PLR, older age, higher clinical T stage, and nonapplication of induction chemotherapy. Identifying higher recurrence risk patients is crucial for tailored follow-up and treatment.