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<p>Since the start of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling, the operation of the High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir has been subject to substantial uncertainty, particularly with respect to forecasting inflows into Lake Nasser. This uncertainty constrains the ability of reservoir managers to accurately anticipate the downstream consequences of their daily operational decisions. The magnitude and temporal pattern of GERD releases, governed by an over-year storage regime, are largely unknown, as is their subsequent influence on the regulation strategies of Sudanese dams, which depend on seasonal storage. In addition, the ongoing impacts of climate change across the Nile Basin and its sub-catchments magnify the challenge of generating reliable long-lead forecasts of natural runoff. None of the existing simulation models for Lake Nasser are capable of operating in responsive on-line mode to simulate alternative combinations of decision variables selected by operators, nor can they accommodate changes in the lake’s physical configuration or outlet works. Also, none of the current models enables the HAD operators to evaluate instantaneously their alternative combination of decisions variables (outlets’ releases) in terms of few system state variables at the end of the simulation period (hydrologic year or few months). In this study, the operational performance of the HAD is simulated through a computational approach that utilizes a STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The aim of such modelling effort is to support the MWRI’s (Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation) HAD Operation Committee with a flexible and responsive simulation tool that enables its members to assess the Lake Nasser system state subject to the decision they make. The findings of this research highlight the importance of developing adaptive and dynamic simulation tools to enhance decision-making for HAD operations. By leveraging STELLA model, operators can gain better insights into the system's behaviour under various scenarios, and responding to the change of lake’s physical configuration or outlets works and mitigating uncertainties associated with GERD operations and climate change.</p>

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Responsive High Aswan Dam operational model: Dynamic Reservoir System Configuration

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月24日

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  • Rameen Abdelhady,
  • Aref Gharib,
  • Hussam Fahmy

摘要

Since the start of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling, the operation of the High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir has been subject to substantial uncertainty, particularly with respect to forecasting inflows into Lake Nasser. This uncertainty constrains the ability of reservoir managers to accurately anticipate the downstream consequences of their daily operational decisions. The magnitude and temporal pattern of GERD releases, governed by an over-year storage regime, are largely unknown, as is their subsequent influence on the regulation strategies of Sudanese dams, which depend on seasonal storage. In addition, the ongoing impacts of climate change across the Nile Basin and its sub-catchments magnify the challenge of generating reliable long-lead forecasts of natural runoff. None of the existing simulation models for Lake Nasser are capable of operating in responsive on-line mode to simulate alternative combinations of decision variables selected by operators, nor can they accommodate changes in the lake’s physical configuration or outlet works. Also, none of the current models enables the HAD operators to evaluate instantaneously their alternative combination of decisions variables (outlets’ releases) in terms of few system state variables at the end of the simulation period (hydrologic year or few months). In this study, the operational performance of the HAD is simulated through a computational approach that utilizes a STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The aim of such modelling effort is to support the MWRI’s (Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation) HAD Operation Committee with a flexible and responsive simulation tool that enables its members to assess the Lake Nasser system state subject to the decision they make. The findings of this research highlight the importance of developing adaptive and dynamic simulation tools to enhance decision-making for HAD operations. By leveraging STELLA model, operators can gain better insights into the system's behaviour under various scenarios, and responding to the change of lake’s physical configuration or outlets works and mitigating uncertainties associated with GERD operations and climate change.