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<p>This study integrates the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) framework with the Cultural Property Risk Assessment Model (CPRAM) for the Ali Qapu Palace—a UNESCO World Heritage property in Isfahan, Iran. While fire is recognised as a critical threat to historic buildings, few studies quantify the impact of protective measures. To address this gap, the research systematically identifies 354 specific risks across ten agents of deterioration and quantifies their magnitudes through expert-informed scoring. Fire emerges as the dominant hazard, with Fire,3 (localised ignition) and Fire,2 (compartmental spread) collectively driving approximately 80% of total risk. Targeted interventions are modelled across five hierarchical levels—avoidance, blocking, detection, response, and recovery. Results demonstrate a 99.98% reduction in the magnitude of the highest-priority risk (Fire,3,2: combustion of the double-layered wooden roof) and an 85% decrease in projected equivalent area loss over 100&#xa0;years. Also, total palace-wide risk declines by 61.74%, with fire risk significantly deconcentrated and Pest,3 emerging as the new second-highest priority. By providing empirical, numerical assessment of countermeasure effectiveness, this work fills a critical gap in heritage risk literature, which often relies on qualitative assessments without forward-looking efficacy estimation. The integrated CPRAM, DRM framework offers a methodology for prioritising and evaluating resilience strategies in historic buildings globally, demonstrating that proactive, quantified risk management is essential for safeguarding irreplaceable cultural assets.</p>

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Disaster risk assessment and the effectiveness of countermeasures: a comprehensive DRM, CPRAM framework for fire safety in the Ali Qapu Palace

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • Arezoo Izadi

摘要

This study integrates the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) framework with the Cultural Property Risk Assessment Model (CPRAM) for the Ali Qapu Palace—a UNESCO World Heritage property in Isfahan, Iran. While fire is recognised as a critical threat to historic buildings, few studies quantify the impact of protective measures. To address this gap, the research systematically identifies 354 specific risks across ten agents of deterioration and quantifies their magnitudes through expert-informed scoring. Fire emerges as the dominant hazard, with Fire,3 (localised ignition) and Fire,2 (compartmental spread) collectively driving approximately 80% of total risk. Targeted interventions are modelled across five hierarchical levels—avoidance, blocking, detection, response, and recovery. Results demonstrate a 99.98% reduction in the magnitude of the highest-priority risk (Fire,3,2: combustion of the double-layered wooden roof) and an 85% decrease in projected equivalent area loss over 100 years. Also, total palace-wide risk declines by 61.74%, with fire risk significantly deconcentrated and Pest,3 emerging as the new second-highest priority. By providing empirical, numerical assessment of countermeasure effectiveness, this work fills a critical gap in heritage risk literature, which often relies on qualitative assessments without forward-looking efficacy estimation. The integrated CPRAM, DRM framework offers a methodology for prioritising and evaluating resilience strategies in historic buildings globally, demonstrating that proactive, quantified risk management is essential for safeguarding irreplaceable cultural assets.