<p>This study empirically assesses the viability of Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset within the Egyptian context from 2011 to 2023. We conduct a comparative analysis of Bitcoin’s risk-return characteristics against traditional Egyptian investment vehicles: the EGX30 stock index, physical Gold, and the USD/EGP exchange rate. Utilizing historical daily data sourced from Coinbase, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and the Central Bank of Egypt, we employ standard financial metrics including annualized returns, volatility (standard deviation), and Sharpe ratios. Correlation analysis is performed to evaluate Bitcoin’s diversification potential. Furthermore, we examine asset performance during significant periods of socio-economic stress: the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020), and the EGP devaluation period (2022-2023). Our findings reveal Bitcoin’s exceptionally high volatility (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sigma \approx 3.6\%\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>σ</mi> <mo>≈</mo> <mn>3.6</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> daily) and potential for substantial returns, yet yielding a surprisingly negative cumulative return over the entire sample period. Gold demonstrated characteristic stability (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sigma \approx 1.0\%\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>σ</mi> <mo>≈</mo> <mn>1.0</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> daily), while the EGX30 offered moderate growth amidst volatility (<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sigma \approx 1.6\%\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>σ</mi> <mo>≈</mo> <mn>1.6</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> daily). Correlation analysis suggests limited diversification benefits between Bitcoin and traditional assets during certain periods. Event analysis highlights varying asset reactions, with Gold often acting as a safe haven, while Bitcoin exhibited mixed behavior. While Bitcoin presents diversification potential, its extreme volatility, negative long-term cumulative return within this sample period, and the prevailing regulatory uncertainty in Egypt necessitate careful consideration for investors seeking alternative assets in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by inflation and currency depreciation.</p>

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Assessing Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset in Egypt: opportunities and risks.

  • Marwa Hagagy,
  • Saddam Bekhet

摘要

This study empirically assesses the viability of Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset within the Egyptian context from 2011 to 2023. We conduct a comparative analysis of Bitcoin’s risk-return characteristics against traditional Egyptian investment vehicles: the EGX30 stock index, physical Gold, and the USD/EGP exchange rate. Utilizing historical daily data sourced from Coinbase, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and the Central Bank of Egypt, we employ standard financial metrics including annualized returns, volatility (standard deviation), and Sharpe ratios. Correlation analysis is performed to evaluate Bitcoin’s diversification potential. Furthermore, we examine asset performance during significant periods of socio-economic stress: the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020), and the EGP devaluation period (2022-2023). Our findings reveal Bitcoin’s exceptionally high volatility ( \(\sigma \approx 3.6\%\) σ 3.6 % daily) and potential for substantial returns, yet yielding a surprisingly negative cumulative return over the entire sample period. Gold demonstrated characteristic stability ( \(\sigma \approx 1.0\%\) σ 1.0 % daily), while the EGX30 offered moderate growth amidst volatility ( \(\sigma \approx 1.6\%\) σ 1.6 % daily). Correlation analysis suggests limited diversification benefits between Bitcoin and traditional assets during certain periods. Event analysis highlights varying asset reactions, with Gold often acting as a safe haven, while Bitcoin exhibited mixed behavior. While Bitcoin presents diversification potential, its extreme volatility, negative long-term cumulative return within this sample period, and the prevailing regulatory uncertainty in Egypt necessitate careful consideration for investors seeking alternative assets in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by inflation and currency depreciation.