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<p>This paper introduces a weighted output gap measure for Switzerland that combines univariate filters, multivariate filters, and production function approaches. Published quarterly by SECO since 2019:Q4, the series provides a historically consistent and robust indicator of cyclical conditions. Using an inflation forecasting framework, the weighted gap achieves forecasting performance comparable to leading individual methods; although it does not outperform them uniformly, it provides a balanced and reliable signal that mitigates method-specific weaknesses. These properties make it a useful benchmark for business cycle analysis and policy applications.</p>

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Estimating a weighted output gap for Switzerland: methodology and application

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Christian Glocker,
  • Serguei Kaniovski,
  • Philipp Wegmüller

摘要

This paper introduces a weighted output gap measure for Switzerland that combines univariate filters, multivariate filters, and production function approaches. Published quarterly by SECO since 2019:Q4, the series provides a historically consistent and robust indicator of cyclical conditions. Using an inflation forecasting framework, the weighted gap achieves forecasting performance comparable to leading individual methods; although it does not outperform them uniformly, it provides a balanced and reliable signal that mitigates method-specific weaknesses. These properties make it a useful benchmark for business cycle analysis and policy applications.