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Background <p>Climate change poses significant challenges for agricultural pest management, particularly concerning the distribution of phytophagous insects. This study investigates the current and future distribution patterns of three economically important leaf-mining fly species (Agromyzidae) in Morocco: <i>Cerodontha </i>(<i>Cerodontha</i>)<i> denticornis</i>, <i>Phytoliriomyza oasis</i>, and <i>Phytoliriomyza perpusilla</i>. We used MaxEnt modeling with bioclimatic data and occurrence records (2014–2024) to model current potential distributions, analyze species–environmental relationships, and project future range shifts under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060.</p> Results <p>Our models demonstrated robust performance (AUC: 0.965–0.990; TSS: 0.689–0.851) and identified precipitation as the primary driver of these three species’ distributions. Currently, suitable habitats are largely concentrated in northern Morocco, particularly the Rif Mountains, with varying degrees of presence in the Atlas Mountains and Atlantic Plain. <i>P. perpusilla</i> shows the broadest distribution (25.8% of Morocco's territory), followed by <i>C. </i>(<i>C.</i>)<i> denticornis</i> (9.4%) and <i>P. oasis</i> (3.3%). Future projections indicate species-specific responses to climate change, with <i>P. oasis</i> showing the highest vulnerability (projected habitat reduction of 38–49%), while <i>C. </i>(<i>C.</i>)<i> denticornis</i> and <i>P. perpusilla</i> demonstrate greater resilience but with substantial range shifts.</p> Conclusions <p>These findings provide crucial insights for developing proactive pest management strategies and understanding climate change impacts on agricultural systems in North Africa.</p>

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Climate change impacts on the distribution of three agromyzid leaf-mining flies in Morocco: implications for agricultural pest management

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月21日

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  • Mourad Doukale Daief,
  • Magdi El-Hawagry,
  • Kawtar Kettani,
  • Brahim Chergui,
  • Abla Belhaj,
  • Hicham Ourahmoun,
  • Mustafa M. Soliman

摘要

Background

Climate change poses significant challenges for agricultural pest management, particularly concerning the distribution of phytophagous insects. This study investigates the current and future distribution patterns of three economically important leaf-mining fly species (Agromyzidae) in Morocco: Cerodontha (Cerodontha) denticornis, Phytoliriomyza oasis, and Phytoliriomyza perpusilla. We used MaxEnt modeling with bioclimatic data and occurrence records (2014–2024) to model current potential distributions, analyze species–environmental relationships, and project future range shifts under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060.

Results

Our models demonstrated robust performance (AUC: 0.965–0.990; TSS: 0.689–0.851) and identified precipitation as the primary driver of these three species’ distributions. Currently, suitable habitats are largely concentrated in northern Morocco, particularly the Rif Mountains, with varying degrees of presence in the Atlas Mountains and Atlantic Plain. P. perpusilla shows the broadest distribution (25.8% of Morocco's territory), followed by C. (C.) denticornis (9.4%) and P. oasis (3.3%). Future projections indicate species-specific responses to climate change, with P. oasis showing the highest vulnerability (projected habitat reduction of 38–49%), while C. (C.) denticornis and P. perpusilla demonstrate greater resilience but with substantial range shifts.

Conclusions

These findings provide crucial insights for developing proactive pest management strategies and understanding climate change impacts on agricultural systems in North Africa.