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Background <p>Hip fracture in older adults is a leading traumatic cause of death in this population. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of the burden of hip fracture among the elderly and, using multiple analytical approaches, demonstrates a strong association between falls and hip fracture in this age group.</p> Methods <p>Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we reported the disease burden and risk factors of hip fractures in older adults and analyzed the relationship between falls and the associated disease burden. We employed Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationships between various risk factors (including falls) and hip fractures in the elderly. Furthermore, we described the epidemiological trends and projected future incidence of fall-related hip fractures in this population.</p> Results <p>In 2021, the global incidence of hip fractures in the elderly was 13,286,199 (9,285,138–18,354,164), with an ASIR of 1,311.94 (918.51–1,807.04). Based on the GBD study, in 2021 more than 90% of the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and years-lived-with-disability rates for hip fractures in older adults were attributable to falls. Among all fall-related geriatric diseases, the ASIR of geriatric hip fractures is the highest, significantly exceeding that of other conditions. The MR findings revealed that falls are significantly associated with an increased risk of hip fractures in the elderly. In 2021, the global incidence of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly was 12,103,660 (8,116,663–17,145,727), with an ASIR of 1,201.05 (808.88–1,693.91). Based on the Joinpoint regression analysis, it can be observed that from 1990 to 2021, the AAPC for the global ASIR of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.31 to 0.34), with a P-value of less than 0.05. Based on the BAPC model, the global number of incident cases of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly is projected to reach 40,833,020 by 2050, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 1,540.20 per 100,000.</p> Conclusion <p>There is a close association between falls and hip fractures in the elderly. In recent years, fall-related hip fractures have resulted in a significant disease burden, and the epidemiological trend has been upward. In the future, fall-related hip fractures may continue to lead to an even more severe disease burden.</p>

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Falls and the global burden of hip fractures in elderly: an integrated analysis of mendelian randomization and the global burden of disease study 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Hualin Zeng,
  • Huilong Zeng,
  • Xiaoling Zheng,
  • Kaibin Fang,
  • Zhangsheng Dai,
  • Xiaocong Lin

摘要

Background

Hip fracture in older adults is a leading traumatic cause of death in this population. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of the burden of hip fracture among the elderly and, using multiple analytical approaches, demonstrates a strong association between falls and hip fracture in this age group.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we reported the disease burden and risk factors of hip fractures in older adults and analyzed the relationship between falls and the associated disease burden. We employed Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationships between various risk factors (including falls) and hip fractures in the elderly. Furthermore, we described the epidemiological trends and projected future incidence of fall-related hip fractures in this population.

Results

In 2021, the global incidence of hip fractures in the elderly was 13,286,199 (9,285,138–18,354,164), with an ASIR of 1,311.94 (918.51–1,807.04). Based on the GBD study, in 2021 more than 90% of the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and years-lived-with-disability rates for hip fractures in older adults were attributable to falls. Among all fall-related geriatric diseases, the ASIR of geriatric hip fractures is the highest, significantly exceeding that of other conditions. The MR findings revealed that falls are significantly associated with an increased risk of hip fractures in the elderly. In 2021, the global incidence of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly was 12,103,660 (8,116,663–17,145,727), with an ASIR of 1,201.05 (808.88–1,693.91). Based on the Joinpoint regression analysis, it can be observed that from 1990 to 2021, the AAPC for the global ASIR of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.31 to 0.34), with a P-value of less than 0.05. Based on the BAPC model, the global number of incident cases of fall-related hip fractures in the elderly is projected to reach 40,833,020 by 2050, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 1,540.20 per 100,000.

Conclusion

There is a close association between falls and hip fractures in the elderly. In recent years, fall-related hip fractures have resulted in a significant disease burden, and the epidemiological trend has been upward. In the future, fall-related hip fractures may continue to lead to an even more severe disease burden.