Temporal aspects of aspirations and capabilities: evolving (im)mobility options in a qualitative case study from Ethiopia
摘要
Most empirical applications of the aspirations–capabilities framework rely on single field visits, producing snapshots that overlook how individuals’ (im)mobility aspirations and perceived capabilities evolve over time. This article draws on two rounds of qualitative research with 187 respondents in Ethiopia to address the question: “How do individuals’ aspirations and perceived capabilities to migrate or stay evolve over time in two Ethiopian case study sites, and what influences these dynamics?”. By revisiting the same respondents in Wolaita and Dasenech across a one-year interval, the study traces how life course transitions and socio-economic and environmental changes reshape aspirations and perceived capabilities. Findings from the Ethiopian case study reveal that individuals hold a ranked set of (im)mobility preferences, and continuously aim to shift, reverse, or maintain their (im)mobility plan in response to conversion factors such as rainfall, inflation, education opportunities, or conflict. In Wolaita, disappointment in the education system, rising costs of living, and inflation increased international migration aspirations, particularly among young women. In Dasenech, improved rainfall, humanitarian assistance, and irrigation systems strengthened aspirations and capabilities to stay. Across both sites, aspirations frequently aligned with evolving perceptions of capability, illustrating the centrality of the “capability to aspire.” The study contributes to the aspirations–capabilities framework in three ways: by emphasizing the temporality of aspiration–capability interactions, by conceptualizing (im)mobility decision-making as shaped through ranked sets of preferences, and by showing that subjective perceptions of capability often outweigh objective opportunities.