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<p>Green finance has become a central lever for steering economies toward decarbonization. Leveraging China’s 2016 policy package—<i>Guiding Opinions on Establishing a Green Financial System</i>—as a quasinatural experiment, we implement a difference-in-differences design on an 11-year panel of A-share listed firms (2011–2021) to examine high-carbon enterprises (HCEs) through a supply-chain lens. The estimates show a clear environment–economy trade-off: the reform delivers sizable gains in environmental performance while depressing near-term economic outcomes, and these patterns are robust to a broad battery of sensitivity checks. Channel evidence indicates that firms respond along two complementary abatement paths: (i) front-end, process-integrated upgrades that yield incremental efficiency improvements upstream and (ii) capital-intensive end-of-pipe expansions that secure compliance in the short run. Mechanism tests further reveal that tighter green finance constraints crowd out R&amp;D, lowering innovation output and, ultimately, total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analyses show that environmental benefits are stronger where supplier bases are more concentrated and supply chain finance capability is deeper; in these settings, the economic drag is attenuated. Taken together, the results highlight the dual consequences of green-finance policies for HCEs and their supply networks, offering actionable implications for regional green-finance practices, firm-level strategies that balance environmental targets with economic resilience, and the pursuit of high-quality growth in China’s high-carbon sectors.</p>

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Green finance and brown firms along the chain: environmental gains, economic pains, and supply-chain transmission

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • Jiazhan Gao,
  • Guihong Hua,
  • Kedi Wang,
  • Baofeng Huo

摘要

Green finance has become a central lever for steering economies toward decarbonization. Leveraging China’s 2016 policy package—Guiding Opinions on Establishing a Green Financial System—as a quasinatural experiment, we implement a difference-in-differences design on an 11-year panel of A-share listed firms (2011–2021) to examine high-carbon enterprises (HCEs) through a supply-chain lens. The estimates show a clear environment–economy trade-off: the reform delivers sizable gains in environmental performance while depressing near-term economic outcomes, and these patterns are robust to a broad battery of sensitivity checks. Channel evidence indicates that firms respond along two complementary abatement paths: (i) front-end, process-integrated upgrades that yield incremental efficiency improvements upstream and (ii) capital-intensive end-of-pipe expansions that secure compliance in the short run. Mechanism tests further reveal that tighter green finance constraints crowd out R&D, lowering innovation output and, ultimately, total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analyses show that environmental benefits are stronger where supplier bases are more concentrated and supply chain finance capability is deeper; in these settings, the economic drag is attenuated. Taken together, the results highlight the dual consequences of green-finance policies for HCEs and their supply networks, offering actionable implications for regional green-finance practices, firm-level strategies that balance environmental targets with economic resilience, and the pursuit of high-quality growth in China’s high-carbon sectors.