Sun-powered profitability: assessing the financial viability of a real agrivoltaic system
摘要
The increasing demand for renewable energy and the declining profitability of traditional farming have led, in recent years, to a growing replacement of agricultural activities with ground-mounted photovoltaic installations, further reducing the availability of farmland already threatened by competing land uses. In response, the concept of agrivoltaics (AV), which integrates solar energy production with agricultural activity, has been emerging as a promising solution to optimize land use while supporting both food and energy security. Despite growing interest, limited research has been conducted on the economic and financial viability of AV systems, particularly in real-world contexts. This study aims to address this gap by performing a financial analysis of a large AV plant project in an inland area of Sicily (southern Italy). The methodology includes a cost–benefit analysis to assess the investment's financial feasibility, followed by a sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the results. In addition, a Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to incorporate uncertainty and probabilistic risk assessment into the evaluation. The findings reveal a high level of financial viability, primarily driven by electricity production. These results suggest that, under the current regulatory conditions, AV systems can meet sustainability targets in both agriculture and renewable energy while promoting more efficient and multifunctional land use. These insights could be relevant for policymakers, investors, and farmers, supporting evidence-based decisions on land-use planning and incentive schemes to scale up AV deployment in regions facing both agricultural marginality and strong pressure for renewable energy expansion.