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Background <p>The National Rifle Association (NRA) is one of the most widely known social movement organizations in the United States (US). At a time of heightened concern for political violence, we assess individual-level associations between self-reported NRA approval and support for political violence, willingness to engage in political violence, and attitudes and beliefs linked to political violence.</p> Methods <p>Findings are for respondents to Wave 2 (conducted May 18-June 8, 2023) of a nationally representative longitudinal survey; participants are members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Prevalences are reported as weighted percentages with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Associations are expressed as adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs), measured in percentage points (pp), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values.</p> Results <p>The Wave 2 completion rate was 84.2%. There were 9,385 respondents, of whom 8,361 (89.1%) reported their level of NRA approval and are included here. Strong or very strong NRA approval was reported by 2,669 respondents (“NRA approvers”; 27.0%, 95% CI 25.7%, 28.2%), and 3,423 respondents (46.6%, 95% CI 45.1%, 48.0%) reported non-approval. Only half of NRA approvers (49.8%, 95% CI 47.2%, 52.5%) personally owned firearms. NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to support political violence and more willing to engage in it. For example, approvers were more than twice as likely as non-approvers to view violence as usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective (approvers 44.0%, 95% CI 41.4%, 46.6%; non-approvers 21.5%, 95% CI 19.6%, 23.4%; aPD 18.3pp, 95% CI 14.1pp, 22.5pp; q &lt; 0.001) and to consider it very or extremely likely that they would shoot someone to advance a political objective (approvers 4.2%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.5%; non-approvers 0.8%, 95% CI 0.4%, 1.2%; aPD 4.3pp, 95% CI 2.5pp, 6.1pp; q &lt; 0.001). NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to endorse a wide array of beliefs and personal characteristics that have been associated with violence, including political violence.</p> Conclusions <p>Approval of the NRA is associated with increased support for and willingness to engage in political violence, including lethal violence. These findings can help focus political violence prevention efforts in the United States.</p>

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Approval of the National Rifle Association and political violence: findings from a nationally representative survey

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Garen J. Wintemute,
  • Yueju Li,
  • Aaron B. Shev,
  • Sonia L. Robinson,
  • Elizabeth A. Tomsich,
  • Mona A. Wright,
  • Veronica A. Pear

摘要

Background

The National Rifle Association (NRA) is one of the most widely known social movement organizations in the United States (US). At a time of heightened concern for political violence, we assess individual-level associations between self-reported NRA approval and support for political violence, willingness to engage in political violence, and attitudes and beliefs linked to political violence.

Methods

Findings are for respondents to Wave 2 (conducted May 18-June 8, 2023) of a nationally representative longitudinal survey; participants are members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Prevalences are reported as weighted percentages with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Associations are expressed as adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs), measured in percentage points (pp), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values.

Results

The Wave 2 completion rate was 84.2%. There were 9,385 respondents, of whom 8,361 (89.1%) reported their level of NRA approval and are included here. Strong or very strong NRA approval was reported by 2,669 respondents (“NRA approvers”; 27.0%, 95% CI 25.7%, 28.2%), and 3,423 respondents (46.6%, 95% CI 45.1%, 48.0%) reported non-approval. Only half of NRA approvers (49.8%, 95% CI 47.2%, 52.5%) personally owned firearms. NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to support political violence and more willing to engage in it. For example, approvers were more than twice as likely as non-approvers to view violence as usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective (approvers 44.0%, 95% CI 41.4%, 46.6%; non-approvers 21.5%, 95% CI 19.6%, 23.4%; aPD 18.3pp, 95% CI 14.1pp, 22.5pp; q < 0.001) and to consider it very or extremely likely that they would shoot someone to advance a political objective (approvers 4.2%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.5%; non-approvers 0.8%, 95% CI 0.4%, 1.2%; aPD 4.3pp, 95% CI 2.5pp, 6.1pp; q < 0.001). NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to endorse a wide array of beliefs and personal characteristics that have been associated with violence, including political violence.

Conclusions

Approval of the NRA is associated with increased support for and willingness to engage in political violence, including lethal violence. These findings can help focus political violence prevention efforts in the United States.