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Background <p>A nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found a decrease in population-level support for political violence from 2022 to 2023. This individual-level analysis of those data examines associations between the occurrence of 18 specified life events and subsequent change in views on political violence.</p> Methods <p>Participants in the Life in America Survey were members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 2 of the survey was fielded online May 18-June 8, 2023; all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1 who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. We calculated individual scores for 2022 and 2023 on 35 political violence measures from the first component of an ordinal principal components analysis and computed the difference in scores for individual respondents from 2022 to 2023 to represent a 1-year change in these measures. Our principal outcomes are adjusted mean differences in change scores from 2022 to 2023 between individuals experiencing and not experiencing the 18 life events.</p> Results <p>The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. Support for political violence decreased for 19.9% of respondents, increased for 14.2%, and remained unchanged for 65.9%. When events were considered individually in a model that adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and other life events, only “things improved for me financially” was associated with decreased support for political violence among respondents as a whole; “I gave up on politics” was associated with an increase. No event was associated with change among both men and women when they were analyzed separately. Among respondents who reported in 2022 that violence was usually or always justified for at least 1 political objective, no events were associated with change in support for political violence. Among those who strongly approved in 2022 of left-wing violent extremist organizations or movements, “my political beliefs changed a lot” was associated with a large decrease.</p> Conclusions <p>In this cohort, few life events were associated with changes in support for political violence across the entire population, but there were important subset findings. The findings support interventions to improve measures of economic well-being across the population and to encourage belief change among extremists as political violence prevention measures.</p>

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Life events and change in support for political violence in the United States: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月27日

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  • Garen J. Wintemute,
  • Sonia L. Robinson,
  • Andrew Crawford,
  • Elizabeth A. Tomsich,
  • Mona A. Wright,
  • Veronica A. Pear,
  • Aaron B. Shev

摘要

Background

A nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found a decrease in population-level support for political violence from 2022 to 2023. This individual-level analysis of those data examines associations between the occurrence of 18 specified life events and subsequent change in views on political violence.

Methods

Participants in the Life in America Survey were members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 2 of the survey was fielded online May 18-June 8, 2023; all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1 who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. We calculated individual scores for 2022 and 2023 on 35 political violence measures from the first component of an ordinal principal components analysis and computed the difference in scores for individual respondents from 2022 to 2023 to represent a 1-year change in these measures. Our principal outcomes are adjusted mean differences in change scores from 2022 to 2023 between individuals experiencing and not experiencing the 18 life events.

Results

The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. Support for political violence decreased for 19.9% of respondents, increased for 14.2%, and remained unchanged for 65.9%. When events were considered individually in a model that adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and other life events, only “things improved for me financially” was associated with decreased support for political violence among respondents as a whole; “I gave up on politics” was associated with an increase. No event was associated with change among both men and women when they were analyzed separately. Among respondents who reported in 2022 that violence was usually or always justified for at least 1 political objective, no events were associated with change in support for political violence. Among those who strongly approved in 2022 of left-wing violent extremist organizations or movements, “my political beliefs changed a lot” was associated with a large decrease.

Conclusions

In this cohort, few life events were associated with changes in support for political violence across the entire population, but there were important subset findings. The findings support interventions to improve measures of economic well-being across the population and to encourage belief change among extremists as political violence prevention measures.