Assessing drought changes in China under a CO2 removal scenario
摘要
Understanding regional drought responses to CO2 removal is critical for carbon-neutral pathways, yet remains poorly understood for China. To address this gap, we developed a bias-corrected and spatially downscaled SPEI dataset from multi-model CO2 removal experiments to evaluate drought evolution, driving mechanisms, and event characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) across China and its subregions. The results reveal a lagged drought response of 5–10 years to rapid CO2 removal, after which conditions gradually improve. This mitigation is accompanied by less frequent, shorter-duration, and less severe drought events. Notably, extreme droughts show alleviation primarily through reduced persistence and intensity. Attribution analysis shows distinct regional controls: arid zones are dominated by potential evapotranspiration (PET), semi-arid and semi-humid regions by precipitation, while humid regions are jointly governed by precipitation and its nonlinear interaction with PET. Critically, even after CO2 returns to pre-industrial levels, drought recovery is incomplete and regionally heterogeneous, with persistent residual effects in some areas contrasting with over-recovery in others. These findings highlight that climatic inertia fundamentally constrains CO2 removal from rapidly reversing regional drought risks, while pronounced spatial heterogeneity necessitates region-specific adaptation strategies in designing carbon-neutral pathways.