Beyond the average: mapping educational inequality in Brazil with PISA 2022

Brazil’s participation in PISA 2022 offers a unique opportunity to explore how learning outcomes vary across regions within a decentralized education system.

We evaluate whether PISA 2022 can generate statistically reliable state-level mathematics estimates in Brazil and identify key student-, school-, and state-level predictors of performance.

We analysed mathematics scores from 10,798 fifteen-year-olds across 598 schools in all 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District. To assess concurrent validity, state-level PISA means were regressed on mean scores from the 2021 Sistema de Avaliação da Educação Básica (SAEB). We then applied a three-level hierarchical linear model—students nested within schools, nested within states—adding predictors stepwise.

State PISA means accounted for 64% of the variance in SAEB scores (R² = 0.64), showing strong concurrent validity with the national grade 9 assessment. At the student level, mathematics preference (β = 0.44), anticipated effort under grading (β = 0.18), and socioeconomic status (β = 0.14) were the strongest positive predictors, while grade repetition had the largest negative coefficient (β = − 0.43). Private-school attendance was associated with higher scores, corresponding to an estimated difference of approximately four years of schooling. At the state level, after controlling for variables at all levels, only the municipal Human Development Index (HDIm; β = 0.13) remained statistically significant.

PISA 2022 illuminates sub-national indicators of Brazilian educational quality and uncovers globally recognized, multilayered predictors of mathematics performance. Routinely integrating ILSAs with national assessments can help inform equity-oriented education policies.