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<p>The article considers the use of CLA in conjunction with the Futures Triangle and the process of scenario building to shed light on the tension between preferred, plausible and probable futures of Palestinian exiles over 2040–2050 and the implications these futures have for European anticipatory governance. The future dimension can be made explicit in the examination of the Palestinian question, which is most often done historically, legally or humanitarian. Drawing from policy reports, demographic data and scholarship on Palestinian exile, identity and transnational politics, it reads the litany, systemic, worldview and myth layers using CLA and maps the temporal forces that hinder or facilitate change with the Futures Triangle. In this design, based on CLA, the scenario step comes after the scenario building by perspectivists, which takes scenarios as tools for strategic conversation rather than prediction. The following three interpretive archetypes are built: Negotiated Return and Reconstruction (normatively preferred, transformative future); Transnational Diaspora Consolidation (plausible, adaptive future); Permanent Fragmentation (high-risk future trajectory). Every scenario is presented in two registers: a narrative perspective in the future, from 2050, and an analytic meta-discussion. An actor’s game analysis in the tradition of Godet’s Mactor method is then used to test which of these futures the prevailing balance of power makes feasible. The main discovery is that the political divide over Palestinian futures is not between competing political programs, but between the structural possibility of the diaspora future and the symbolic authority of return, exile and sumud. Finally, the article suggests specific European anticipatory-governance answers for each of the three scenarios.</p>

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Palestinian diaspora futures, 2040–2050: causal layered analysis, the futures triangle, scenarios, and European anticipatory governance

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • Muamar Salameh

摘要

The article considers the use of CLA in conjunction with the Futures Triangle and the process of scenario building to shed light on the tension between preferred, plausible and probable futures of Palestinian exiles over 2040–2050 and the implications these futures have for European anticipatory governance. The future dimension can be made explicit in the examination of the Palestinian question, which is most often done historically, legally or humanitarian. Drawing from policy reports, demographic data and scholarship on Palestinian exile, identity and transnational politics, it reads the litany, systemic, worldview and myth layers using CLA and maps the temporal forces that hinder or facilitate change with the Futures Triangle. In this design, based on CLA, the scenario step comes after the scenario building by perspectivists, which takes scenarios as tools for strategic conversation rather than prediction. The following three interpretive archetypes are built: Negotiated Return and Reconstruction (normatively preferred, transformative future); Transnational Diaspora Consolidation (plausible, adaptive future); Permanent Fragmentation (high-risk future trajectory). Every scenario is presented in two registers: a narrative perspective in the future, from 2050, and an analytic meta-discussion. An actor’s game analysis in the tradition of Godet’s Mactor method is then used to test which of these futures the prevailing balance of power makes feasible. The main discovery is that the political divide over Palestinian futures is not between competing political programs, but between the structural possibility of the diaspora future and the symbolic authority of return, exile and sumud. Finally, the article suggests specific European anticipatory-governance answers for each of the three scenarios.