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<p>European food systems are central drivers of environmental degradation and diet-related health issues, while remaining highly vulnerable to climate, geopolitical, and economic shocks. Against this backdrop of polycrisis and governance complexity, this article develops and tests a framework for designing coherent policy mixes for food system transformation in Europe. Building on four European Environment Agency imaginaries for a sustainable Europe in 2050, the framework integrates participatory foresight methods, the X‑curve transition model and morphological analysis with consistency assessment. It addresses three questions: (1) how participatory foresight tools and transition research frameworks can be combined into a replicable methodology for developing internally coherent policy‑mixes; (2) which configurations of food governance policies are internally consistent and how they differ in their underlying governance philosophies and transformative implications; and (3) how these configurations compare with the current European food policy framework and where critical governance gaps lie. Two expert workshops and subsequent desk research generated phase‑specific transition measures (pathways), which were clustered into ten governance dimensions and subjected to cross‑consistency assessment. This yielded four stylised policy‑mixes. The analysis shows that existing policies of the European Union (EU) are closest to a Mixed-Approaches logic but lack internal coherence, that incremental reform of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is insufficient for transformation, and that just‑transition governance remains underdeveloped. Methodologically, the study’s main innovation lies in combining <i>temporal sequencing</i> (X‑curve) with <i>static cross‑consistency</i> analysis, thereby operationalising both sequencing and structural coherence in policy‑mix design, leading to what we call policy-mix pathways. However, the creation of fully sequenced roadmaps would be part of subsequent research.</p>

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Bridging foresight and transition theory: policy mixes for transforming Europe’s food systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Ullrich Lorenz,
  • Minna Kaljonen,
  • Ricardo da Silva Vieira,
  • Henrik Larsen

摘要

European food systems are central drivers of environmental degradation and diet-related health issues, while remaining highly vulnerable to climate, geopolitical, and economic shocks. Against this backdrop of polycrisis and governance complexity, this article develops and tests a framework for designing coherent policy mixes for food system transformation in Europe. Building on four European Environment Agency imaginaries for a sustainable Europe in 2050, the framework integrates participatory foresight methods, the X‑curve transition model and morphological analysis with consistency assessment. It addresses three questions: (1) how participatory foresight tools and transition research frameworks can be combined into a replicable methodology for developing internally coherent policy‑mixes; (2) which configurations of food governance policies are internally consistent and how they differ in their underlying governance philosophies and transformative implications; and (3) how these configurations compare with the current European food policy framework and where critical governance gaps lie. Two expert workshops and subsequent desk research generated phase‑specific transition measures (pathways), which were clustered into ten governance dimensions and subjected to cross‑consistency assessment. This yielded four stylised policy‑mixes. The analysis shows that existing policies of the European Union (EU) are closest to a Mixed-Approaches logic but lack internal coherence, that incremental reform of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is insufficient for transformation, and that just‑transition governance remains underdeveloped. Methodologically, the study’s main innovation lies in combining temporal sequencing (X‑curve) with static cross‑consistency analysis, thereby operationalising both sequencing and structural coherence in policy‑mix design, leading to what we call policy-mix pathways. However, the creation of fully sequenced roadmaps would be part of subsequent research.