Mapping futures literacy as a competence space: structure, measuring and empirical patterns

Although futures literacy (FL) has gained increasing attention as a key concept in futures studies and education, its empirical operationalisation and measurement remain underdeveloped. Existing approaches often frame futures literacy either normatively, as a desirable capacity, or functionally, as a set of skills and methods, while its internal structure and the role of consciousness are rarely addressed in an integrated way. This paper responds to this gap by conceptualising futures literacy as a socially and culturally embedded competence space and by examining how its structure can be explored empirically.

The study models futures literacy as a three-dimensional competence pattern consisting of knowledge as uses of the future, futures-related skills and capabilities, and consciousness, understood as the degree to which these uses and capabilities are recognised and applied intentionally. A mixed-methods design was employed within participatory action research in higher education, combining a validated futures skills scale with case-study essays, self-reflective diaries, focus groups and interviews in both intensive and full-semester university courses.

Results indicate that futures literacy development is primarily structural rather than linear or purely quantitative. Participants broadened their repertoire of future uses and skills, and overall consciousness increased; however, they show uneven transformation. Post-course data show that much of this shift remained at the level of awareness, with everyday practices often reverting to semi-closed patterns. Intensive-course participants displayed sharper short-term gains in openness and agency, whereas full-course students developed more integrated and durable patterns, including reflexive handling of open and closed assumptions. Across phases, growing openness proved ambivalent, strengthening agency while also generating uncertainty and future-related anxiety.

These findings suggest that futures literacy measurement requires profile- and pattern-based approaches integrating psychometric and reflective methods, and that its development represents a gradual conceptual change process rather than a short-term training effect.