Background Climate warming is increasingly reshaping the population dynamics of Oncomelania hupensis, the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Investigating the response of O. hupensis to climate warming is crucial for guiding targeted and precise interventions against these snails, thereby advancing the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination and sustaining the achievement of elimination in China. This study aims to quantify the multi-scale responses of O. hupensis to climate warming. Method We conducted a 45-day temperature-controlled laboratory experiment with adult O. hupensis from Hubei Gongan County, China, exposing snails to the Low Temp group (5 ˚C), the Control group (25 ˚C), and the High Temp group (30 ˚C) to assess body-size-dependent survival. We then analyzed O. hupensis surveillance data from 1990 to 2022 across 12 provinces in China (34,554 villages), linked to climate data downloaded from ERA5-Land. We developed sliding-window models to examine climate exposure across life stages to assess population-level responses to climate warming, and used general linear mixed-effects models to explore the environmental factors influencing climate responses (geographic variables: latitude, longitude, altitude, land use, historical climate variability). Model performance was evaluated to identify the best predictive models, which were subsequently used to project future O. hupensis density under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We further sampled 240 wild O. hupensis and measured their body sizes to validate the previous results inversely. Results At the individual level, we observed that larger snails had a higher survival rate at both the Low Temp group (91.6%, 95% CI 85.8–97.7%) and High Temp group (45.7%, 95% CI 31.9–65.6%) compared with the control group (76.5%, 95% CI 58.7–99.5%). At the population level, O. hupensis density closely tracks climate warming, with 92.0% of populations showing positive temperature sensitivity. Exposure during the coldest (January: 2.7 × 10–2, 95% CI 3 × 10–3–5.1 × 10–2; February: 3.3 × 10–2, 95% CI 1.1 × 10–2–5.6 × 10–2) and breeding seasons (April: 2.4 × 10–2, 95% CI 6 × 10–3–4.3 × 10–2; September–October: 3.5 × 10–2, 95% CI 2 × 10–3–6.8 × 10–2) had a greater influence on O. hupensis density under climate warming. O. hupensis in waterbody-dominated areas showed the largest density growth rates (ß = 1.6 × 10–1, 95% CI 1.1 × 10–1–2.2 × 10–1), whereas crop populations were the most sensitive to land cover, a 1% increase in crop cover was associated with a 0.2 increase in population density. At the ecosystem level, only 19.0–24.6% of populations were expected to benefit from climate change by 2100, and these benefiting populations were concentrated in regions where sampled wild snails had a mean body size of 8.2 mm. Cropland will account for 72.0% of populations benefiting from climate warming, compared with 17.2% in forests and 8.3% in impervious-dominated areas. Conclusion The O. hupensis populations grow under climate warming but are regulated by land-use types. To mitigate the impacts of climate warming and land-use on snails, surveillance and integrated interventions should be strengthened through multi-sector collaboration.

Impact of climate warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China: multi-scale evidence

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2026年7月3日

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Qin Li,
Jin-Xin Zheng,
Li-Juan Zhang,
Su-ying Guo,
Ying Yang,
Jürg Utzinger,
Xiao-Nong Zhou,
Jing Xu,
Shi-Zhu Li

摘要

Background

Climate warming is increasingly reshaping the population dynamics of Oncomelania hupensis, the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Investigating the response of O. hupensis to climate warming is crucial for guiding targeted and precise interventions against these snails, thereby advancing the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination and sustaining the achievement of elimination in China. This study aims to quantify the multi-scale responses of O. hupensis to climate warming.

Method

We conducted a 45-day temperature-controlled laboratory experiment with adult O. hupensis from Hubei Gongan County, China, exposing snails to the Low Temp group (5 ˚C), the Control group (25 ˚C), and the High Temp group (30 ˚C) to assess body-size-dependent survival. We then analyzed O. hupensis surveillance data from 1990 to 2022 across 12 provinces in China (34,554 villages), linked to climate data downloaded from ERA5-Land. We developed sliding-window models to examine climate exposure across life stages to assess population-level responses to climate warming, and used general linear mixed-effects models to explore the environmental factors influencing climate responses (geographic variables: latitude, longitude, altitude, land use, historical climate variability). Model performance was evaluated to identify the best predictive models, which were subsequently used to project future O. hupensis density under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We further sampled 240 wild O. hupensis and measured their body sizes to validate the previous results inversely.

Results

At the individual level, we observed that larger snails had a higher survival rate at both the Low Temp group (91.6%, 95% CI 85.8–97.7%) and High Temp group (45.7%, 95% CI 31.9–65.6%) compared with the control group (76.5%, 95% CI 58.7–99.5%). At the population level, O. hupensis density closely tracks climate warming, with 92.0% of populations showing positive temperature sensitivity. Exposure during the coldest (January: 2.7 × 10^–2, 95% CI 3 × 10^–3–5.1 × 10^–2; February: 3.3 × 10^–2, 95% CI 1.1 × 10^–2–5.6 × 10^–2) and breeding seasons (April: 2.4 × 10^–2, 95% CI 6 × 10^–3–4.3 × 10^–2; September–October: 3.5 × 10^–2, 95% CI 2 × 10^–3–6.8 × 10^–2) had a greater influence on O. hupensis density under climate warming. O. hupensis in waterbody-dominated areas showed the largest density growth rates (ß = 1.6 × 10^–1, 95% CI 1.1 × 10^–1–2.2 × 10^–1), whereas crop populations were the most sensitive to land cover, a 1% increase in crop cover was associated with a 0.2 increase in population density. At the ecosystem level, only 19.0–24.6% of populations were expected to benefit from climate change by 2100, and these benefiting populations were concentrated in regions where sampled wild snails had a mean body size of 8.2 mm. Cropland will account for 72.0% of populations benefiting from climate warming, compared with 17.2% in forests and 8.3% in impervious-dominated areas.

Conclusion

The O. hupensis populations grow under climate warming but are regulated by land-use types. To mitigate the impacts of climate warming and land-use on snails, surveillance and integrated interventions should be strengthened through multi-sector collaboration.