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<p>The rapid expansion of civil aviation passenger transport in China has led to rising carbon emissions, posing a major challenge to the country’s “dual-carbon” goals. This study systematically identified key drivers of emission changes and explored feasible pathways to achieve carbon peaking in the aviation industry. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Non-radial Directional Distance Function (NDDF), the analysis examined carbon emission trends in the civil aviation passenger transport of China from 2005 to 2019. Then, a decomposition framework was constructed to incorporate the transport intensity, industrial structure, and economic development. Based on multi-scenario designs and Monte Carlo simulations, the study projected the emission trajectories for 2025–2040. The results indicate that: (1) the transport intensity and economic growth are the principal drivers of continued emission increases, and the energy intensity exerts a significant restraining effect; (2) under existing policies, the industry is unlikely to reach carbon peaking before 2040; (3) under the technological improvement scenario, carbon peaking can occur by 2035, whereas under the “Enhanced Measures” and “Deep Decarbonization” scenarios, large-scale deployment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and improvements in energy efficiency may enable peaking by 2030 with substantially lower peak levels. These findings highlight the synergistic mitigation potential of efficiency improvements and energy transition and provide theoretical support and policy insights to construct a scientifically sound low-carbon transition pathway for the civil aviation sector of China.</p>

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Driving factors and peak path of passenger carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry of China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • Yuxiu Chen,
  • Huijie Zhao,
  • Jian Yu,
  • Xiaoli Zhang

摘要

The rapid expansion of civil aviation passenger transport in China has led to rising carbon emissions, posing a major challenge to the country’s “dual-carbon” goals. This study systematically identified key drivers of emission changes and explored feasible pathways to achieve carbon peaking in the aviation industry. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Non-radial Directional Distance Function (NDDF), the analysis examined carbon emission trends in the civil aviation passenger transport of China from 2005 to 2019. Then, a decomposition framework was constructed to incorporate the transport intensity, industrial structure, and economic development. Based on multi-scenario designs and Monte Carlo simulations, the study projected the emission trajectories for 2025–2040. The results indicate that: (1) the transport intensity and economic growth are the principal drivers of continued emission increases, and the energy intensity exerts a significant restraining effect; (2) under existing policies, the industry is unlikely to reach carbon peaking before 2040; (3) under the technological improvement scenario, carbon peaking can occur by 2035, whereas under the “Enhanced Measures” and “Deep Decarbonization” scenarios, large-scale deployment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and improvements in energy efficiency may enable peaking by 2030 with substantially lower peak levels. These findings highlight the synergistic mitigation potential of efficiency improvements and energy transition and provide theoretical support and policy insights to construct a scientifically sound low-carbon transition pathway for the civil aviation sector of China.