Determinants of household food security in rural uganda: perceived needs as key predictors

Food insecurity remains a persistent challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in rural areas where households depend on subsistence agriculture and face increasing vulnerability to climate shocks. Despite growing research on the topic, many studies rely on isolated or context-specific indicators, limiting comparability and policy relevance. This study addresses that gap by using two widely recognized indicators—the Food Consumption Score (FCS) and the Months of Adequate Household Food Provisioning (MAHFP)—to assess food security among rural households in Uganda’s Sembabule district. It had two main objectives: [1] to compare the diagnostic potential of FCS and MAHFP in assessing household food security, and [2] to identify key determinants of food security using binary logistic regression models. Data were collected from 173 households through a two-phase approach combining structured questionnaires and open-ended interviews.

The two indicators produced contrasting results: while 41.5% of households were classified as food insecure by FCS, 68.9% were considered food insecure by MAHFP. Binary logistic regression models identified perceived minimum necessary income, rather than actual income, as a stronger predictor of food security. In addition, household-reported challenges such as hunger, insufficient clothing, lack of farmland, and dissatisfaction with water access emerged as significant determinants. These qualitative variables consistently showed stronger explanatory power than many traditional socioeconomic factors.

Findings highlight the multidimensional nature of food insecurity and the value of combining standardized indicators with open-ended, perception-based data. Improving access to cultivable land and safe water, as well as integrating local perspectives into rural development strategies, may enhance the effectiveness of food security interventions. The strong predictive power of perceived needs over objective income measures suggests that policies should go beyond income generation to include financial literacy and resource management support. Additionally, agricultural diversification—particularly through integrated crop-livestock systems—can help households strengthen resilience. This study supports the use of participatory approaches that give voice to lived experiences and help uncover priority needs often overlooked in conventional assessments.