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Background <p>Future impacts of rising temperatures and extreme weather events on agriculture are expected to be severe, potentially resulting in a 25% reduction in global crop yields by 2050. As a risk multiplier, global warming also exacerbates existing conflicts over natural resources. In the event of large-scale conflicts like nuclear war, food production could suffer significantly, potentially declining by 90% in global average calorie production due to the resulting cold and dark weather conditions. <i>Lemnaceae</i> (commonly known as ‘duckweed’) is a family of prolific aquatic plants and a high-protein food source. It is capable of growing in extreme hot or cold conditions, where conventional crops struggle. This study investigates the effects of both global warming and post-nuclear war cooling on duckweed growing seasons and biomass production. A plant growth model was coupled with climate data to predict annual duckweed yields across 20 locations worldwide, considering two global warming scenarios: (1) an optimistic sustainable pathway with low greenhouse gas emissions and (2) a fossil fuel-dominated pathway with medium to high greenhouse gas emissions. We also examined three post-nuclear war cases with different atmospheric carbon injections.</p> Results <p>In low-latitude equatorial regions, global warming and the low-emission nuclear war case had minimal impact on duckweed yields (less than 6% change from baseline), whereas higher latitudes experienced yield increases (up to 90%) with global warming. The high-emission nuclear war cases showed a significant reduction in yields, but equatorial regions could still produce 19–20 metric ton/ha of duckweed annually.</p> Conclusions <p>The findings from this work substantiate the versatility of duckweed to improve global food security under both global warming and post-catastrophic cooling scenarios.</p>

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Lemnaceae as a resilient crop to improve food security under climate extremes: global warming and post-catastrophic cooling scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月15日

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  • P. V. Femeena,
  • R. A. Brennan

摘要

Background

Future impacts of rising temperatures and extreme weather events on agriculture are expected to be severe, potentially resulting in a 25% reduction in global crop yields by 2050. As a risk multiplier, global warming also exacerbates existing conflicts over natural resources. In the event of large-scale conflicts like nuclear war, food production could suffer significantly, potentially declining by 90% in global average calorie production due to the resulting cold and dark weather conditions. Lemnaceae (commonly known as ‘duckweed’) is a family of prolific aquatic plants and a high-protein food source. It is capable of growing in extreme hot or cold conditions, where conventional crops struggle. This study investigates the effects of both global warming and post-nuclear war cooling on duckweed growing seasons and biomass production. A plant growth model was coupled with climate data to predict annual duckweed yields across 20 locations worldwide, considering two global warming scenarios: (1) an optimistic sustainable pathway with low greenhouse gas emissions and (2) a fossil fuel-dominated pathway with medium to high greenhouse gas emissions. We also examined three post-nuclear war cases with different atmospheric carbon injections.

Results

In low-latitude equatorial regions, global warming and the low-emission nuclear war case had minimal impact on duckweed yields (less than 6% change from baseline), whereas higher latitudes experienced yield increases (up to 90%) with global warming. The high-emission nuclear war cases showed a significant reduction in yields, but equatorial regions could still produce 19–20 metric ton/ha of duckweed annually.

Conclusions

The findings from this work substantiate the versatility of duckweed to improve global food security under both global warming and post-catastrophic cooling scenarios.