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<p>This study advances SDG 9 and SDG 16 by asking whether better digital infrastructure (DI) can cushion or amplify the innovation effects of rising geopolitical risk (GPR). Filling a key gap, it is the first to model the GPR × DI interaction across the innovation distribution and to contrast Global South with Global North outcomes. Using principal component approach (PCA)-based indices for 35 countries (2000–2022) and combining two advanced quantile regression methods, results show that GPR boosts innovation overall, DI supports the lower tail, but their interaction weakens mid-level performance. In the Global South, both factors are stimulative, with DI’s buffering effect evident only at the top decile. In the Global North, GPR effects diminish at higher levels, but DI remains beneficial. Policy-wise, broadband expansion must be paired with cybersecurity and institutional upgrades, tailored to development stage, to convert geopolitical headwinds into inclusive innovation gains.</p>

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Investigating the innovation effects of geopolitical risk: is digital infrastructure a shield or a catalyst?

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Charles Shaaba Saba,
  • Hilda Jaka Mabiza,
  • Ariel Herbert Fambeu

摘要

This study advances SDG 9 and SDG 16 by asking whether better digital infrastructure (DI) can cushion or amplify the innovation effects of rising geopolitical risk (GPR). Filling a key gap, it is the first to model the GPR × DI interaction across the innovation distribution and to contrast Global South with Global North outcomes. Using principal component approach (PCA)-based indices for 35 countries (2000–2022) and combining two advanced quantile regression methods, results show that GPR boosts innovation overall, DI supports the lower tail, but their interaction weakens mid-level performance. In the Global South, both factors are stimulative, with DI’s buffering effect evident only at the top decile. In the Global North, GPR effects diminish at higher levels, but DI remains beneficial. Policy-wise, broadband expansion must be paired with cybersecurity and institutional upgrades, tailored to development stage, to convert geopolitical headwinds into inclusive innovation gains.